Forex Fundamental Analysis - 07 Desember 2007

Fundamental Analysis

Friday, December 07th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA

At 7.00 a.m. New York time we will have Canadian Employment Change. In the past, this indicator has been giving huge deviations away from the expectations so it is quite possible tomorrow we will get another big deviation. I believe that a trigger of 20 K either direction should be sufficient to see USD/CAD moving 40 pips or more. So if it comes out at 35 K or higher, USD/CAD may go down by 40 to 45 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at -5 K or more negative, USD/CAD may go up 40 to 45 pips or more.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian Employment Change
* Sell on USD/CAD if the number will be 35 K or higher
* Buy on USD/CAD if the number will be -5 K or more negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 to 45 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

Friday, December 07th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA

Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll coming out. It is expected it will come out at 70K. However, on Wednesday we had the ADP Employment number, surprising very largely to the upper side (189K versus 50K expected). A lot of traders are increasing their bets on expectations what Non-Farm Payroll is going to come out us so the consensus moves towards 80 or 90K. If it comes out at 150K or higher, that would be a sell signal on GBP/USD. On the other hand, if it comes out at 30K or lower, then it would be a buy signal on GBP/USD. You can also trade GBP/JPY with the same triggers. Personally, most likely I will be trading both pairs.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Non-Farm Payroll
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 150K or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 30K or lower
* You can also trade GBP/JPY

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