Forex Technical Analysis 29 September 2007

Technical News Breaks

• AUDUSD: Sees Lowest Price Since Feb'1989
• GOLD: Breaks To A Fresh 2007 High
• US Dollar Index: Sinks To A Low Of 77.66

AUDUSD

AUDUSD-shot to a 17-year plus high of 0.8887 on Friday breaking through its year-to-date high at 0.8870 to close the week at 0.8882.This development is coming on the heels of a decline to as low as 0.7676 in Mid-August'07 which was followed by a recovery through layers of resistance manifesting in the current break higher. Upside targets stand at its psycho level at 0.9000 and higher at the 0.9200 level, its 1.272 Fib Ext.Immediate downside target lies at 0.8870 level, its July 25'07 high followed by its Sept 21'07 high at 0.8704, the 0.8664 level, its Aug 09'07 high and the 0.8424 level, its .382 Ret (0.7676-0.8887 rally).The weekly studies remain bullish and are pointing higher suggesting further strength. The pair is up 12.63% for the year, 4.73% in Q3 2007 and 8.52% for the month of September'07.

GOLD (Futures)

GOLD (Futures)-pushed through its Sept 20'2007 high at $740 to break to a fresh 28 -year high of $752.9 on Friday. Having eroded the $740 high, the metal should now push towards its sideways breakout price target at $756.50.If a break occurs, then its 1.272 Fib Ext. at $782.51 will be aimed at ahead of its psychological resistance at $800.00.The weekly and monthly momentum continue to point higher implying more gains. Downside targets are seen at its Sept 20'2007 high at $740 with a break there pushing prices towards its Sept 25'07 low at $723.80 and lower at the its .382 Ret ($645.80-$752.9 rally).Although overbought is now a factor on the daily time frame, price is yet to confirm any near term weakness. Gold is up 17.46% for the year, 15.15% in Q3 2007 and 11.11% in the month of September'07.

US Dollar Index

Weakened to a low of 77.66 on Friday to close a fourth week of lower prices since testing and failing at the 81.13 level on Sept 03'07.With price action on the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes trending lower, the Index looks to further its weakness with the bottoming of momentum indicators seen as only a temporary setback to this downside view. Support comes in at the 77.00 level, its psycho level while resistance starts at the 78.21 level which represents its Sept 25'07 low followed by the $79.00,its psycho level and its .382 Ret ($82.13 to $ 77.66 decline)at $79.37.

……In other Technical News Breaks

USDCAD

Conntinues to trade below its parity (1.0000) level,breaking to a low of 0.9913 on Friday. The pair's broader outlook remains to the downside with the next support coming in at 0.9876 while resistance is located at its psycho level at 1.0000 and its Sept 26'07 high at 1.0096.Daily momentum remains bearish to overbought.

USDCHF

Saw a two-year plus low of 1.1626 on Friday after pushing through its Sept 25'07 low at 1.1638.The pair is now expected to challenge lower prices aiming at its Mar 06'07 low at 1.1479 and its Dec'04 low at 1.1287.Resistance levels are located at the 1.1756 level, its Sept 24'07 high ahead of the 1.1800/15 zone, which is the location of its Aug 05'07/Sep 13'07 lows and the next at its Sept 14'07 high at 1.1924.The weekly and monthly momentum indicators are bearish which suggest further weakness.

By: Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst

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